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Water Tera KongmingTier 2
at Illusive TCG Online Regionals
decks
2
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-5-1
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
48.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1254
· median 1254
· range 1159–1349
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1284
Q3 1447
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.3 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Water Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
