← Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Ravishing Mill | 11 | 10.9% | 60 | 64.2% | 62.7% | 56.9% | 57.1% | 1307 | — |
| 2 | Water Neos Tonoris | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 78.6% | 76.4% | 55.6% | 58.2% | 1277 | — |
| 3 | Water Penguin Mill | 8 | 7.9% | 49 | 61.2% | 50.5% | 55.1% | 49.0% | 1369 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Astra Cleric | 7 | 6.9% | 41 | 56.1% | 58.1% | 53.1% | 54.7% | 1301 | — |
| 5 | Fire Exia | 1 | 1.0% | 2 | 50.0% | 53.7% | 52.9% | 54.1% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 57.1% | 55.5% | 52.8% | 53.0% | 1218 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 3.0% | 19 | 60.5% | 55.6% | 52.7% | 52.4% | 1331 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Allies | 5 | 5.0% | 30 | 48.3% | 43.8% | 52.7% | 49.7% | 1336 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Slimes | 10 | 9.9% | 57 | 53.5% | 53.4% | 52.4% | 52.4% | 1257 | — |
| 10 | Water Allies | 6 | 5.9% | 41 | 51.2% | 48.5% | 51.7% | 50.3% | 1330 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Water Slimes | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 57.1% | 59.6% | 51.6% | 53.1% | 1191 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Razorgale | 3 | 3.0% | 16 | 53.1% | 48.3% | 51.1% | 49.4% | 1307 | — |
| 13 | Water Umbra Diana | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 42.9% | 47.7% | 50.2% | 51.1% | 1333 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 57.1% | 54.6% | 48.5% | 48.8% | 1239 | — |
| 15 | Water Crux Mage | 2 | 2.0% | 8 | 37.5% | 41.9% | 48.3% | 48.2% | 1260 | — |
| 16 | Fire Crux Mage | 13 | 12.9% | 63 | 48.4% | 51.9% | 48.0% | 50.1% | 1268 | — |
| 17 | Wind Shadowstrike | 5 | 5.0% | 25 | 36.0% | 39.5% | 43.6% | 44.2% | 1270 | — |
| 18 | Slimes | 15 | 14.9% | 57 | 35.1% | 40.1% | 42.2% | 44.1% | 1231 | — |
| 19 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 28.6% | 40.0% | 41.7% | 42.7% | 1298 | — |
| 20 | Fire Exia Jin | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 28.6% | 36.2% | 41.7% | 42.2% | 1145 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 1.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.6% | 40.5% | 42.4% | 1152 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 1.0% | 5 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | 1147 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.0% | 41.7% | 40.0% | 41.7% | 1142 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Water Tera Mage | 2 | 2.0% | 11 | 22.7% | 33.5% | 38.0% | 40.1% | 1096 | ↓ low |