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Fire Crux MageTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 17.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 51.3% | +0.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.6% | +15.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Slimes | 6.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Wind Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |