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Wind RazorgaleTier 2

at Regionals at The Banish Zone

decks
7 (11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
45 20-21-4
overall winrate
48.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.6% avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
48.7% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1335 · median 1340 · range 1209–1453 (7 pilots with an ELO rating)
976 Q1 1200 Q3 1383 1656
29% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Penguin Mill 17.5% 12 6-5-1 54.2% 53.1% 50.4% +0.2
Fire Slimes 7.9% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 29.6% -19.6
Wind Shadowstrike 7.9% 6 2-3-1 41.7% 45.0% 47.4% -1.4
Slimes 6.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.5% -10.4
Wind Astra Cleric 6.3% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 64.0% +13.4
Fire Crux Mage 4.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.4% -2.6
Water Crux Mage 4.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 45.5% -4.3
Wind Allies 4.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.7% -8.4
Water Astra Cleric 3.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 60.4% +10.0
Water Luxem Assassin 3.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% +0.0
Water Ravishing Mill 3.2% 4 0-3-1 12.5% 31.2% 28.7% -13.6
Fire Crux Lorraine 1.6% 0
Fire Exia 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.1% +11.3
Fire Lorraine 1.6% 0
Fire Silvie 1.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.6% -18.2
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.6% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.2% -0.7
Water Allies 1.6% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 53.0% +2.9
Water Crux Merlin 1.6% 0
Water Diana 1.6% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 67.1% +16.4
Water Slimes 1.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.4% -15.4
Wind Arcane 1.6% 0
Wind Exia 1.6% 0
Wind Overlord 1.6% 0
Wind Tera Silvie 1.6% 0
Wind Umbra Diana 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.8% +15.7
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 51 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 51 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Forest Cake -1.00 0 2 0
Stifling Trap -1.00 0 2 0
Dream Fairy +1.00 2 0 0
Reclaim +0.50 1 0 1
Aesan Protector +0.50 1 0 1
Rose, Eternal Paragon +0.50 1 0 0
Shimmercloak Assassin +0.50 1 0 0
Water Resonance Bauble -0.50 0 1 1
Fire Resonance Bauble -0.50 0 1 1
Displace +0.50 1 0 0
Lurking Assailant +0.50 1 0 0
Veiling Breeze -0.50 0 1 1
Fan of Seven Debts -0.50 0 1 1
Tempest Downfall -0.50 0 1 1
Slimeshield -0.50 0 1 1
Sword of Seeking +0.50 1 0 0
Rallied Advance +0.50 1 0 0
Windrider Vanguard +0.50 1 0 0
Kongming, Wayward Maven -0.50 0 1 1
Smoke Bombs +0.50 1 0 0
Windmill Engineer +0.50 1 0 1
Second Wind +0.50 1 0 0
Bagua of Cardinal Fate -0.50 0 1 1
Wind Resonance Bauble -0.50 0 1 1
Eternal Magistrate +0.50 1 0 0
Ornamental Greatsword +0.50 1 0 0
Turbo Charge -0.50 0 1 1
Poisoned Coating Oil +0.50 1 0 0
Verdigris Decree +0.50 1 0 1
Ventus, Staff of Zephyrs -0.50 0 1 1
Fairy Whispers -0.50 0 1 1
Orb of Regret +0.50 1 0 0
Baby Gray Slime -0.50 0 1 1
Tariff Ring -0.50 0 1 1
Baby Green Slime -0.50 0 1 1
Brisk Windtrotter +0.50 1 0 0
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior +0.50 1 0 0
Nullifying Mirror -0.50 0 1 1
Zephyr +0.50 1 0 1
Three Visits -0.50 0 1 1
Innervate Agility -0.50 0 1 0
Resolute Stand +0.50 1 0 0
Diablerie -0.50 0 1 0
Favorable Winds -0.50 0 1 0
Incapacitate -0.50 0 1 0
Escape the Wreckage +0.50 1 0 0
Unbroken Mustang +0.00 1 1 0
Cyclical Breeze +0.00 1 1 0
Scavenging Raccoon +0.00 1 1 0
Ardent Cloudstriker +0.00 1 1 0
Scatter Essence +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/15587/archetypes/Wind Razorgale