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Water Crux MageTier 1
at Regionals at The Banish Zone
decks
3
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
10-8-3
overall winrate
54.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.2%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1400
· median 1451
· range 1282–1468
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1200
Q3 1383
1656
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 17.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -1.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.9% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.4% | +2.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Slimes | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -3.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Fire Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
