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Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Regionals at The Banish Zone
decks
2
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
7-5-3
overall winrate
56.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
65.1%
avg ELO +6.1 per match
expected value
48.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1278
· median 1278
· range 1167–1389
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1200
Q3 1383
1656
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 17.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.7% | -9.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 11.1% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 71.3% | +13.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.2% | +7.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.4 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Fire Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Wind Overlord | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
