← Regionals at The Banish Zone
Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Regionals at The Banish Zone
decks
11
(17.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
68
37-23-8
overall winrate
60.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.3%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
54.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1316
· median 1293
· range 1062–1656
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1200
Q3 1383
1656
27% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
18% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 11.1% | 12 | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 46.9% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.9% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 61.9% | +6.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.9% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 47.3% | -1.6 |
| Slimes | 6.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 54.4% | +3.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 48.7% | -0.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +1.8 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +5.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.3% | +9.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.4% | +4.0 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.2% | -8.8 |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Silvie | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.7% | +5.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Water Diana | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.9% | -12.5 |
| Water Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Wind Overlord | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.2% | +11.8 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Awakened Deacon, Water Barrier, Song of Frost. Losers more often ran: Frozen Dismissal, Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer, Vanitas, Convergent Ruin.
Awakened Deacon
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Water Barrier
Winning decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Song of Frost
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Revitalizing Cleanse
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Frostbind
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Scatter Essence
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Frozen Dismissal
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 3.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Vanitas, Convergent Ruin
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Vanitas, Dominus Rex
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Chilling Touch
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Tidal Lock
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Awakened Deacon | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Water Barrier | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Diablerie | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Water | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sink into Oblivion | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Torrential Blast | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 |