NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 1	15	18.5%	41-24-9	61.5%	56.1%	55.5%	52.8%	1381	—
2		Water Penguin Mill	Tier 1	10	12.3%	27-19-10	57.1%	53.4%	53.1%	51.8%	1409	↑ top
3		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 1	8	9.9%	18-18-7	50.0%	47.2%	50.4%	48.9%	1379	—
4		Slimes	Tier 1	7	8.6%	17-17-2	50.0%	51.0%	51.4%	52.0%	1258	↓ low
5		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 2	6	7.4%	14-16-7	47.3%	54.3%	49.5%	52.2%	1291	—
6		Wind Allies	Tier 1	6	7.4%	15-15-1	50.0%	56.1%	45.4%	49.3%	1237	↓ low
7		Water Allies	Tier 2	5	6.2%	7-12-0	36.8%	41.6%	44.1%	46.0%	1336	—
8		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	4	4.9%	8-6-7	54.8%	52.1%	51.3%	50.7%	1307	—
9		Fire Aggro	Tier 2	3	3.7%	5-14-1	27.5%	31.2%	38.2%	38.7%	1317	—
10		Fire Exia	Tier 2	3	3.7%	2-13-3	19.4%	36.1%	41.0%	46.3%	1192	↓ low
11		Wind Razorgale	Tier 2	3	3.7%	6-11-4	38.1%	41.2%	41.9%	42.7%	1373	—
12		Wind Crux Mage	Tier 2	2	2.5%	6-6-2	50.0%	43.6%	50.8%	48.7%	1315	—
13		Fire Slimes	Tier 2	1	1.2%	4-3-0	57.1%	59.9%	48.1%	52.3%	1135	↓ low
14		Fire Umbra Ranger	Tier 3	1	1.2%	1-2-0	33.3%	50.5%	47.6%	51.2%	1116	↓ low
15		Water Arisanna	Tier 2	1	1.2%	5-2-0	71.4%	52.3%	56.7%	51.2%	1423	↑ top
16		Water Crux Lorraine	Tier 2	1	1.2%	4-1-2	71.4%	63.6%	51.4%	52.1%	1352	—
17		Water Crux Mage	Tier 2	1	1.2%	5-1-1	78.6%	61.5%	55.0%	51.3%	1561	↑ top
18		Water Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	1	1.2%	2-4-1	35.7%	48.8%	48.6%	53.8%	1323	—
19		Water Umbra Diana	Tier 2	1	1.2%	3-3-0	50.0%	34.0%	48.5%	44.2%	1678	↑ top
20		Wind Silvie	Tier 3	1	1.2%	2-4-1	35.7%	45.3%	46.5%	46.9%	1164	↓ low
21		Wind Slice & Dice	Tier 3	1	1.2%	3-4-0	42.9%	55.9%	47.4%	52.4%	1193	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Water Ravishing Mill 15 decks · 18.5%
• Water Penguin Mill 10 decks · 12.3%
• Wind Astra Cleric 8 decks · 9.9%
• Slimes 7 decks · 8.6%
• Fire Crux Mage 6 decks · 7.4%
• Wind Allies 6 decks · 7.4%
• Water Allies 5 decks · 6.2%
• Wind Shadowstrike 4 decks · 4.9%
• Fire Aggro 3 decks · 3.7%
• Fire Exia 3 decks · 3.7%
• Wind Razorgale 3 decks · 3.7%
• Wind Crux Mage 2 decks · 2.5%
• Fire Slimes 1 deck · 1.2%
• Fire Umbra Ranger 1 deck · 1.2%
• Water Arisanna 1 deck · 1.2%
• Water Crux Lorraine 1 deck · 1.2%
• Water Crux Mage 1 deck · 1.2%
• Water Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 1.2%
• Water Umbra Diana 1 deck · 1.2%
• Wind Silvie 1 deck · 1.2%
• Wind Slice & Dice 1 deck · 1.2%