← NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara
Fire ExiaTier 2
at NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 18.5% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 43.4% | -4.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Slimes | 8.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.2% | -13.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 47.5% | -1.5 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 46 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ash Filcher | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ingress of Sanguine Ire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhao Yun, Dragonsblood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flashfire Horse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fervent Lancer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crescent Glaive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bloodbond Bladesworn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Executioner's Spear | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Desperate Cavalier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Temper in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fang of Dragon's Breath | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |