← NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.3% | 11 | 5-4-2 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 48.1% | -0.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.9% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 55.6% | +2.8 |
| Slimes | 8.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.7% | -9.2 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 56.6% | +3.8 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 7 | 6-1-0 | 85.7% | 72.7% | 63.4% | +6.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 8 | 2-4-2 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 45.6% | -2.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 72.1% | +16.5 |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 56.6% | +4.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 72.1% | +14.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 42.1% | -5.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.2% | +6.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +4.4 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.3% | -5.7 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.9% | -7.8 |
Decklists · 15 from this event
The 15 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 11 mirror matches (4 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Frozen Dismissal, Rippleback Terrapin, Primordial Ritual. Losers more often ran: Storm of Thorns, Snow Fairy, Vaporjet Shieldbearer.
Show all 48 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.64 | 8 | 1 | 2 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.64 | 8 | 1 | 2 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.55 | 7 | 1 | 3 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.55 | 1 | 7 | 3 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.55 | 1 | 7 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.45 | 5 | 0 | 2 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.36 | 5 | 1 | 3 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | -0.36 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.27 | 1 | 4 | 6 | |
| Frostbind | +0.27 | 6 | 3 | 2 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.27 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -0.27 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.27 | 4 | 1 | 6 | |
| Glacial Guidance | -0.27 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.27 | 4 | 1 | 6 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.27 | 4 | 1 | 6 | |
| Diffusive Block | -0.27 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.27 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | -0.27 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.18 | 2 | 0 | 9 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.18 | 2 | 0 | 9 | |
| Savage Smash | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.09 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Temptation's Facade | +0.09 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -0.09 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.09 | 2 | 1 | 8 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.09 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freeze Stiff | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Powered Defender | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 8 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 9 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 |