← NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara
Water ArisannaTier 2
at NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara
decks
1
(1.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-2-0
overall winrate
71.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.3%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
56.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1423
· median 1423
· range 1423–1423
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1070
Q1 1193
Q3 1429
1678
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 18.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -4.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Slimes | 8.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.3% | +8.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
