← NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara
decks
6
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
37
14-16-7
overall winrate
47.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.3%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
49.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1291
· median 1274
· range 1140–1440
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1070
Q1 1193
Q3 1429
1678
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 18.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.3% | +9.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.3% | 7 | 1-6-0 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 40.0% | -5.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.9% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +1.6 |
| Slimes | 8.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.6% | -4.0 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 5 | 2-1-2 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.5% | +1.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.5% | +14.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
