← NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara
Water Luxem AssassinTier 2
at NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara
decks
1
(1.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
2-4-1
overall winrate
35.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.8%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
48.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1323
· median 1323
· range 1323–1323
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1070
Q1 1193
Q3 1429
1678
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 18.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.7% | +5.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Luxem Assassin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
