← NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara
Water AlliesTier 2
at NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 18.5% | 7 | 1-6-0 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 36.6% | -6.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.7% | -14.7 |
| Slimes | 8.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Drifting Rogue | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shroud in Mist | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 |