← NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara
Wind AlliesTier 1
at NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara
decks
6
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
31
15-15-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.1%
avg ELO +2.2 per match
expected value
45.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1237
· median 1243
· range 1158–1311
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1070
Q1 1193
Q3 1429
1678
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 18.5% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 43.4% | -3.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.3% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 42.0% | -4.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Slimes | 8.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 42.8% | -4.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.7% | +12.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.2% | +7.6 |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.4% | +18.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Water Arisanna | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
