← NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara
Water Penguin MillTier 1
at NorCal Regionals 2025 Santa Clara
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 18.5% | 11 | 4-5-2 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 51.9% | +0.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.9% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 46.5% | -1.8 |
| Slimes | 8.6% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 45.1% | -2.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 7 | 6-1-0 | 85.7% | 72.7% | 60.0% | +5.0 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 58.0% | +4.2 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -1.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 65.2% | +9.7 |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.9% | +8.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 35.1% | -11.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.0 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Primordial Ritual, Water Barrier. Losers more often ran: Frostbind, Freezing Steel, Arisanna, Master Alchemist.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Water Barrier | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Converter | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |