EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Water Neos Tonoris

56.0%

1.1% share · 7 matches

1st

Fire Crux Hybrid

58.7%

7.6% share · 39 matches

3rd

Fire Crux Merlin

54.4%

2.2% share · 14 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Crux Hybrid	7	7.6%	39	62.8%	60.2%	58.7%	57.6%	1306	—
2	Water Neos Tonoris	1	1.1%	7	57.1%	55.0%	56.0%	55.1%	1276	—
3	Fire Crux Merlin	2	2.2%	14	53.6%	54.4%	54.4%	55.1%	1317	—
4	Water Astra Cleric	1	1.1%	6	41.7%	35.3%	52.3%	48.1%	1568	↑ top
5	Wind Crux Mage	2	2.2%	14	57.1%	53.3%	51.7%	51.2%	1327	—
6	Fire Crux Mage	12	13.0%	69	52.9%	53.3%	51.5%	52.4%	1300	—
7	Water Allies	6	6.5%	40	58.8%	53.0%	51.3%	49.4%	1292	—
8	Fire Luxem Assassin	11	12.0%	65	52.3%	47.0%	50.9%	47.7%	1315	—
9	Fire Erupting	5	5.4%	32	54.7%	60.6%	50.9%	54.8%	1325	—
10	Fire Aggro	5	5.4%	30	58.3%	56.1%	50.8%	50.6%	1321	—
11	Fire Arcane	5	5.4%	35	54.3%	53.7%	48.6%	49.0%	1267	—
12	Wind Allies	16	17.4%	99	47.5%	46.9%	47.7%	47.2%	1301	—
13	Wind Crux Lorraine	3	3.3%	16	34.4%	42.8%	46.6%	48.3%	1208	↓ low
14	Water Luxem Assassin	1	1.1%	7	28.6%	36.6%	46.2%	46.5%	1068	↓ low
15	Fire Umbra Ranger	10	10.9%	56	42.0%	45.8%	45.7%	48.1%	1242	—
16	Wind Tera Silvie	2	2.2%	12	41.7%	44.9%	44.3%	45.2%	1263	—
17	Fire Neos Tonoris	1	1.1%	7	14.3%	34.1%	44.0%	46.8%	1153	↓ low
18	Fire Tera Silvie	1	1.1%	5	10.0%	34.6%	41.0%	43.9%	1043	↓ low
19	Fire Crux Lorraine	1	1.1%	7	14.3%	30.6%	36.8%	38.4%	1133	↓ low