Fire ArcaneTier 3
at Ascent Utrecht
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 15.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 11.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Slimes | 9.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.5% | -14.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 42.0% | -6.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 68.8% | +14.0 |
| Water Allies | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erratic Bolt | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Keep of the Golden Sashes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Power Overwhelming | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Arcane | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conduit of the Mad Mage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Knowledge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm Tyrant's Eye | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |