Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Ascent Utrecht
decks
19
(11.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
154
79-51-24
overall winrate
59.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.8%
avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
57.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1413
· median 1402
· range 1185–1668
(19 pilots with an ELO rating)
1018
Q1 1187
Q3 1379
1689
63% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
5% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 15.1% | 32 | 17-7-8 | 65.6% | 63.9% | 65.5% | +5.6 |
| Slimes | 9.6% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 55.0% | +2.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.4% | 19 | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 52.2% | 50.9% | +0.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.6% | 14 | 7-6-1 | 53.6% | 52.8% | 42.6% | -3.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.6% | 8 | 5-1-2 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 65.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 16 | 9-5-2 | 62.5% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +2.7 |
| Water Allies | 5.4% | 12 | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 46.9% | 39.4% | -4.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.7% | -3.9 |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 36.5% | -6.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 4 | 1-0-3 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 60.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.6% | +11.2 |
| Fire Exia | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.2% | -8.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.6% | +3.4 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +5.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.1% | -6.6 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.2% | -5.1 |
| Water Slimes | 0.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 67.8% | +13.3 |
| Wind Cats | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 35.5% | -14.0 |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -5.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.2 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
Decklists · 19 from this event
The 19 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 12 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Freezing Steel, Frostbind, Sink into Oblivion. Losers more often ran: Song of Frost, Mystic Purifier, Revitalizing Cleanse.
Freezing Steel
Winning decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Frostbind
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Sink into Oblivion
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Beastbond Boots
Winning decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Nullifying Lantern
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 6.
Song of Frost
Losing decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Mystic Purifier
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Revitalizing Cleanse
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.5.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Blinding Orb
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Dream Fairy
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Primordial Ritual
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.4.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 47 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -0.58 | 1 | 8 | 2 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.58 | 7 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.42 | 7 | 2 | 2 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.42 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Sink into Oblivion | +0.33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.25 | 2 | 5 | 4 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.25 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.25 | 2 | 5 | 2 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.25 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.17 | 4 | 6 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.17 | 3 | 5 | 4 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | +0.17 | 5 | 3 | 3 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.17 | 3 | 5 | 3 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Allen, Beast Beckoner | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 8 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 6 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Torrential Blast | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Orchestrated Seizure | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cell Converter | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Three Visits | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 1 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Swooping Talons | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |