Water AlliesTier 1
at Ascent Utrecht
decks
9
(5.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
79
38-33-8
overall winrate
53.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.7%
avg ELO +3.6 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1282
· median 1268
· range 1163–1535
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
1018
Q1 1187
Q3 1379
1689
22% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
22% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 15.1% | 13 | 3-9-1 | 26.9% | 32.4% | 39.0% | -4.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 11.4% | 12 | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 60.6% | +4.5 |
| Slimes | 9.6% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 57.9% | +3.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.4% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 70.2% | +11.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.3% | +19.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 67.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.2% | +24.4 |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.9% | +5.7 |
| Fire Exia | 1.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.2% | -15.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.3 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 71.5% | +16.0 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Fire Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.5 |
| Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 4 | 0-2-2 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.9% | -5.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.9% | +10.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.2% | +27.5 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Water Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Sable Remnant, Lost in Thought, Song of Nurturing. Losers more often ran: Snow Fairy, Freezing Hail.
Sable Remnant
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Banned
Lost in Thought
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Song of Nurturing
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Seasprite Diver
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Zander, Deft Executor
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Snow Fairy
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Freezing Hail
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 91 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 75 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snow Fairy | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Xia Hou Dun, Gloryseeker | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Halocline Scout | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eventide Spear | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inundating Clash | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowdancer | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extraction Incision | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Claw | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Drifting Rogue | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Hired Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Flash Grenade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sinister Mindreaver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tactical Retreat | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Round | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| False Step | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cascading Round | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |