Water ArisannaTier 2
at Ascent Utrecht
decks
1
(0.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-4-2
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
51.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1358
· median 1358
· range 1358–1358
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1018
Q1 1187
Q3 1379
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 15.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.3% | +7.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 11.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.5% | -5.3 |
| Slimes | 9.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.6% | -26.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -4.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.4% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.1% | +5.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
