Wind AlliesTier 1
at Ascent Utrecht
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 15.1% | 9 | 5-3-1 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 61.6% | +5.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 11.4% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 63.5% | +6.2 |
| Slimes | 9.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -2.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.4% | 7 | 1-6-0 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 33.7% | -8.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.8% | -7.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.6% | +20.7 |
| Water Allies | 5.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 71.7% | +16.2 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.1 |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Water Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Wind Tonoris | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 74 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 74 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manufacture Cell | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cell Vanguard | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Adept Swordmaster | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Veteran Soldier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lancelot, Goliath of Aesa | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Parcenet, Royal Maid | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tactful Sergeant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr's Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Warrior's Longsword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palace Guard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Attune with the Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vigilant Sentry | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Panzer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Recruitment Officer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasoned Shieldmaster | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Accompanying Guard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unrelenting Warden | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |