Wind RazorgaleTier 2
at Ascent Utrecht
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 15.1% | 16 | 5-7-4 | 43.8% | 45.0% | 37.2% | -5.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 11.4% | 8 | 1-5-2 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 34.3% | -7.5 |
| Slimes | 9.6% | 9 | 3-5-1 | 38.9% | 42.3% | 25.9% | -11.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.4% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 55.5% | +2.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.4% | -6.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 30.3% | -9.9 |
| Water Allies | 5.4% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 32.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 29.8% | -10.8 |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 58.0% | +6.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -3.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 24.5% | -24.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -2.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Wind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blessed Clergy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cyclical Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cleric Robes | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dominating Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bagua of Cardinal Fate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Wind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three Visits | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |