← Ascent Utrecht

SlimesTier 2

at Ascent Utrecht

decks
16 (9.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
103 40-50-13
overall winrate
45.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.0% avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
44.6% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1223 · median 1189 · range 1110–1432 (16 pilots with an ELO rating)
1018 Q1 1187 Q3 1379 1689
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 50% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Ravishing Mill 15.1% 19 6-10-3 39.5% 41.3% 48.1% -0.7
Water Penguin Mill 11.4% 7 2-5-0 28.6% 36.4% 45.0% -2.5
Wind Astra Cleric 8.4% 9 3-5-1 38.9% 42.3% 49.4% -0.3
Fire Crux Mage 6.6% 4 1-1-2 50.0% 50.0% 44.0% -3.9
Wind Razorgale 6.6% 9 5-3-1 61.1% 57.7% 74.1% +11.1
Fire Slimes 5.4% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 29.4% -15.3
Water Allies 5.4% 8 3-5-0 37.5% 41.7% 42.1% -3.8
Wind Shadowstrike 4.8% 8 1-3-4 37.5% 41.7% 48.0% -1.0
Wind Allies 4.2% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 53.7% +2.3
Fire Arcane 1.8% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 65.5% +14.9
Water Luxem Assassin 1.8% 4 2-0-2 75.0% 62.5% 74.0% +15.4
Fire Aggro 1.2% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 47.3% -2.0
Fire Exia 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.0% +17.6
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 55.1% +4.9
Water Umbra Ranger 1.2% 0
Wind Lorraine 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.8% -18.0
Dawn of Ashes 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.4% +5.4
Fire Astra Arisanna 0.6% 0
Fire Astra Cleric 0.6% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 55.2% +4.9
Fire Crux Merlin 0.6% 0
Fire Neos 0.6% 0
Fire Silvie 0.6% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.6% 0
Overlord 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.4% +5.4
Water Arisanna 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 66.4% +26.2
Water Astra Cleric 0.6% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 0.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.8% -16.4
Water Crux Mage 0.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.6% -3.8
Water Crux Merlin 0.6% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 67.6% +16.9
Water Neos 0.6% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 73.8% +17.8
Water Silvie 0.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.5% -10.3
Water Slimes 0.6% 0
Wind Cats 0.6% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 0.6% 0
Wind Exia 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.9% +14.3
Wind Overlord 0.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 32.1% -17.2
Wind Slice & Dice 0.6% 0
Wind Slimes 0.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.7% -14.9
Wind Tonoris 0.6% 0
Wind Umbra Diana 0.6% 0
Wind Umbra Ranger 0.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 31.2% -18.0
Decklists · 16 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 4 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Lustrous Slime, Slime Eruption. Losers more often ran: Unbroken Mustang, Kind Beastcaller, Scavenging Raccoon.

Played more by winners
Lustrous Slime
Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 2.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Slime Eruption
Winning decks ran 3.8 copies on average, losing decks 3.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Played more by losers
Unbroken Mustang
Losing decks ran 1.8 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Kind Beastcaller
Losing decks ran 1.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Scavenging Raccoon
Losing decks ran 1.8 copies on average, winning decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Gaia's Songbird
Losing decks ran 2.5 copies on average, winning decks 2.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Viridian Protective Trinket -0.50 0 2 2
Slimeshield +0.50 2 0 2
Hymn of Gaia's Grace +0.50 2 0 0
Resolute Stand +0.50 2 0 0
Ethereal Slime +0.25 1 0 3
Horn of Beastcalling +0.25 1 0 3
Unbroken Mustang -0.25 1 2 1
Dungeon Guide +0.25 1 0 3
Mystic Purifier +0.25 1 0 1
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -0.25 0 1 0
Kind Beastcaller -0.25 1 2 0
Lustrous Slime +0.25 2 1 1
Stalwart Shieldmate +0.25 1 0 0
Scavenging Raccoon -0.25 1 2 1
Nascent Blast -0.25 0 1 0
Gaia's Songbird -0.25 1 2 1
Slime Eruption +0.25 2 1 1
Safeguard Amulet -0.25 1 2 0
Quicksilver Grail +0.25 1 0 3
Stonescale Band +0.25 1 0 3
Mechanical Hare +0.25 1 0 0
Twilight Slime +0.25 1 0 0
Academy Guide +0.25 1 0 0
Vampiric Slime -0.25 0 1 0
Key Slime Pudding -0.25 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring -0.25 0 1 0
Green Slime -0.25 0 1 0
Slime Totem -0.25 0 1 0
Smoke Bombs -0.25 0 1 0
Baby Blue Slime -0.25 0 1 0
Bestial Frenzy -0.25 0 1 0
Tera Sight -0.25 0 1 1
Tariff Ring -0.25 0 1 1
Verdant Scepter +0.25 1 0 2
Verdant Slime -0.25 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror +0.25 1 0 0
Reprogram +0.25 1 0 0
Blissful Calling +0.00 1 1 2
Slime's Blessing +0.00 2 2 0
Backup Charger +0.00 1 1 2
Nullifying Lantern +0.00 1 1 2
Escape the Wreckage +0.00 1 1 1
Heavenly Guide +0.00 1 1 0
Slime King +0.00 1 1 0
Turbo Charge +0.00 1 1 1
Beastbond Ears +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/17800/archetypes/Slimes