Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Ascent Utrecht
decks
25
(15.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
186
89-71-26
overall winrate
54.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.3%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
52.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1316
· median 1264
· range 1091–1679
(25 pilots with an ELO rating)
1018
Q1 1187
Q3 1379
1689
32% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
24% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 11.4% | 32 | 7-17-8 | 34.4% | 36.1% | 34.5% | -5.6 |
| Slimes | 9.6% | 19 | 10-6-3 | 60.5% | 58.7% | 51.9% | +0.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.4% | 12 | 6-4-2 | 58.3% | 56.2% | 60.1% | +4.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.6% | 17 | 8-6-3 | 55.9% | 54.8% | 47.7% | -0.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.6% | 16 | 7-5-4 | 56.2% | 55.0% | 62.8% | +5.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 31.6% | -9.8 |
| Water Allies | 5.4% | 13 | 9-3-1 | 73.1% | 67.6% | 61.0% | +4.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 12 | 7-4-1 | 62.5% | 59.4% | 57.0% | +3.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 9 | 3-5-1 | 38.9% | 42.3% | 38.4% | -5.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Fire Exia | 1.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.9% | +14.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 83.1% | +19.1 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.6% | +5.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 35.3% | -11.0 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.0% | +18.2 |
| Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.7% | -7.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 6 | 0-4-2 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 33.6% | -8.7 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.3% | +10.8 |
| Water Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Wind Cats | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.2% | -2.1 |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 78.1% | +18.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Wind Tonoris | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 25 from this event
The 25 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 12 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Revitalizing Cleanse, Tariff Ring, Seaside Ringleader. Losers more often ran: Diffusive Block, Snow Fairy, Vaporjet Shieldbearer.
Revitalizing Cleanse
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Tariff Ring
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Seaside Ringleader
Winning decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
losing decks 1.9.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Blinding Orb
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Primordial Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 3.
Rippleback Terrapin
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Diffusive Block
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Snow Fairy
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Vaporjet Shieldbearer
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Tideholder Claymore
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 54 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.50 | 7 | 1 | 4 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 6 | 0 | 5 | |
| Diffusive Block | -0.42 | 1 | 6 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.42 | 2 | 7 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | -0.33 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.33 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.33 | 5 | 1 | 4 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.33 | 5 | 1 | 4 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.33 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.25 | 6 | 3 | 3 | |
| Frostbind | -0.25 | 4 | 7 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.25 | 2 | 5 | 5 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.25 | 5 | 2 | 3 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | -0.25 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -0.25 | 1 | 4 | 3 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.25 | 3 | 0 | 8 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.25 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.25 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.25 | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | +0.25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -0.17 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -0.17 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.17 | 3 | 1 | 7 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 4 | |
| Temptation's Facade | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 11 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -0.08 | 5 | 6 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Icebound Slam | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Glacial Guidance | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 9 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |