Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Ascent Utrecht
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 15.1% | 17 | 6-8-3 | 44.1% | 45.2% | 52.3% | +0.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 11.4% | 14 | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 47.2% | 57.4% | +3.0 |
| Slimes | 9.6% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.4% | -5.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.4% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 59.7% | +5.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.6% | +6.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Water Allies | 5.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.7% | -19.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 41.8% | -4.1 |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.2% | +7.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.2 |
| Fire Exia | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.7 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Overlord | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.5% | -10.0 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.1 |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Cats | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.3% | +27.7 |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 59.2% | +6.9 |
| Wind Tonoris | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Apotheosis Rite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |