EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Plenty of Games Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Erupting | 5 | 8.6% | 30 | 61.7% | 58.5% | 58.0% | 56.6% | 1299 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 4 | 6.9% | 22 | 63.6% | 59.2% | 57.1% | 56.0% | 1328 | — |
| 3 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.7% | 6 | 66.7% | 54.7% | 54.8% | 52.7% | 1702 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 6 | 10.3% | 28 | 58.9% | 57.7% | 54.5% | 54.4% | 1261 | — |
| 5 | Water Allies | 8 | 13.8% | 38 | 56.6% | 57.6% | 52.7% | 53.3% | 1306 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 3.4% | 11 | 54.5% | 49.8% | 50.5% | 49.3% | 1270 | — |
| 7 | Wind Allies | 7 | 12.1% | 33 | 53.0% | 55.5% | 50.5% | 51.3% | 1336 | — |
| 8 | Water Neos Tonoris | 1 | 1.7% | 6 | 50.0% | 48.9% | 49.9% | 49.3% | 1351 | — |
| 9 | Wind Beast | 1 | 1.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 46.4% | 47.5% | 49.4% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 1.7% | 7 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 47.1% | 47.2% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Aggro | 6 | 10.3% | 31 | 41.9% | 47.7% | 47.1% | 48.4% | 1251 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 8 | 13.8% | 44 | 44.3% | 47.0% | 46.0% | 46.9% | 1337 | — |
| 13 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 8 | 13.8% | 41 | 41.5% | 42.6% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 1268 | — |
| 14 | Water Dawn of Ashes | 2 | 3.4% | 7 | 14.3% | 16.2% | 40.2% | 35.9% | 1395 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Water Neos | 2 | 3.4% | 7 | 14.3% | 16.2% | 40.2% | 35.9% | 1395 | ↑ top |