Fire AggroTier 2
at Ascent Melbourne
decks
14
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
100
44-52-4
overall winrate
46.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.2%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
45.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1276
· median 1286
· range 1094–1486
(14 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1204
Q3 1407
1702
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
29% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.4% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 40.0% | -4.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.8% | 13 | 6-6-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -1.7 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 51.9% | +1.0 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 15 | 4-10-1 | 30.0% | 34.2% | 46.1% | -1.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 37.8% | -6.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 38.3% | -6.7 |
| Slimes | 5.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 27.5% | -16.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 33.7% | -12.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 61.1% | +6.4 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.5% | -5.6 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.9% | +19.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.0% | +18.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 66.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.4 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -7.9 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.3% | +6.9 |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.9 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.6% | -6.1 |
| Fire Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.8% | +23.6 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.6% | -13.9 |
| Water Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Water Polkhawk | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 30.7% | -30.9 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Mark the Target, Lurking Assailant, Rococo, Explosive Maven. Losers more often ran: Spurn to Ash, Sadi, Blood Harvester, Corhazi Courier.
Mark the Target
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Lurking Assailant
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Rococo, Explosive Maven
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Clumsy Apprentice
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Blazing Bowman
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Spurn to Ash
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Sadi, Blood Harvester
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Corhazi Courier
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Rending Flames
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Quicksilver Grail
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 94 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 77 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark the Target | +1.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Flash Grenade | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Boisterous Riot | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Framework Sidearm | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focusing Round | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rocket Jump | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Duelist | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Engineer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Plated Bullet | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Contraband Revolver | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volatile Fusilier | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Scorching Strafe | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Warrior's Longsword | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manic Zealot | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vicious Slice | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extraction Incision | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Powered Bishop | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |