Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Ascent Melbourne
decks
13
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
123
71-35-17
overall winrate
64.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.8%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
59.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1413
· median 1400
· range 1058–1685
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1204
Q3 1407
1702
46% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
15% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.4% | 14 | 9-3-2 | 71.4% | 66.7% | 59.0% | +3.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.8% | 9 | 5-3-1 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 61.3% | +5.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 15 | 10-4-1 | 70.0% | 65.8% | 53.9% | +1.6 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 41.3% | -4.4 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 17 | 8-6-3 | 55.9% | 54.8% | 44.8% | -2.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -2.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 9 | 4-2-3 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 53.7% | +1.7 |
| Slimes | 5.5% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 61.9% | +6.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 45.6% | -2.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -20.9 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.0% | +4.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.8% | +14.2 |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 10 | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 45.4% | -2.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.9% | -9.7 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.8% | +13.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -6.0 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.4 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 37.3% | -8.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Razorgale | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.8% | +22.0 |
| Water Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Polkhawk | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.7 |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Cerulean Decree, Ravishing Finale, Incapacitate. Losers more often ran: Tidal Lock, Wind Resonance Bauble.
Cerulean Decree
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Ravishing Finale
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 3.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Incapacitate
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Mystic Purifier
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Tidal Lock
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tidal Lock | -0.62 | 0 | 5 | 3 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.50 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 3 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
| Frostbind | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Forest Cake | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |