SlimesTier 2
at Ascent Melbourne
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.4% | 8 | 1-6-1 | 18.8% | 29.2% | 31.4% | -8.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.8% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 41.8% | -4.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 72.5% | +16.8 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 11 | 3-6-2 | 36.4% | 40.0% | 34.7% | -6.7 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 45.2% | -2.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 38.1% | -6.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 68.5% | +9.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.7% | +10.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 76.2% | +19.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.3% | +2.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.7% | +4.3 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.5 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Water Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Water Polkhawk | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.6 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slime's Blessing | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Horn of Beastcalling | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Vampiric Slime | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ordinary Bear | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gather Slimes | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Kind Beastcaller | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hymn of Gaia's Grace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime Eruption | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stonescale Band | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Verdant Scepter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Twilight Slime | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Paws | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Young Beastbonder | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime Totem | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Formidable Youxia | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdant Slime | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |