Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Ascent Melbourne
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.4% | 15 | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.2% | +3.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.8% | 10 | 1-8-1 | 15.0% | 25.0% | 28.2% | -9.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 62.2% | +6.1 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.1% | +2.9 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 6 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 27.0% | -12.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +2.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Slimes | 5.5% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 31.5% | -9.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.1% | +3.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.6% | +2.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.8% | +18.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% | -23.6 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Fire Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +2.0 |
| Water Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Water Polkhawk | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.2% | +16.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orchestrated Seizure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |