Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Ascent Melbourne
decks
19
(10.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
145
70-55-20
overall winrate
55.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.5%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
53.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1371
· median 1368
· range 1123–1552
(19 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1204
Q3 1407
1702
42% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
5% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.8% | 12 | 5-4-3 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 51.0% | +0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 60.0% | +4.6 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 13 | 6-6-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.0% | -2.9 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 13 | 4-6-3 | 42.3% | 44.1% | 43.0% | -2.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 14 | 3-9-2 | 28.6% | 33.3% | 41.0% | -3.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 15 | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.8% | -3.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 12 | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 46.5% | -1.5 |
| Slimes | 5.5% | 8 | 6-1-1 | 81.2% | 70.8% | 68.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 48.4% | -0.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 70.7% | +15.4 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -1.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.4% | +14.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.0% | -15.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.9% | -24.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.8% | +19.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.8% | +5.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Razorgale | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 32.3% | -28.3 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Water Diana | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Water Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Polkhawk | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.9 |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 63.3% | +10.0 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.2% | +10.7 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 32.5% | -28.0 |
Decklists · 19 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Freezing Steel, Glacial Evocation, Frostbind. Losers more often ran: Revitalizing Cleanse, Fast Cure, Song of Frost.
Freezing Steel
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Glacial Evocation
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Frostbind
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Reprogram
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Tidestone Bovine
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Revitalizing Cleanse
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Song of Frost
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Crystalline Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Chilling Touch
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Mystic Purifier
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 78 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 58 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Torrential Blast | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Lucent Arbiter | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Astral Seal | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Waterveil Apostle | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dawn's Reversal | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cleric Robes | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cosmic Astroscope | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunar Conduit | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prima Materia | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Knowledge | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stream of Consciousness | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Desperate Dive | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Perfect Repulsion | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Wind | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |