Water Crux LorraineTier 2
at Ascent Melbourne
decks
1
(0.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-1-5
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.5%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1502
· median 1502
· range 1502–1502
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1204
Q3 1407
1702
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.4% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 31.6% | -29.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.4% | +13.9 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Slimes | 5.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Polkhawk | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
