Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Ascent Melbourne
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.4% | 12 | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 46.9% | 53.5% | +1.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.8% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 61.7% | +6.7 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +1.1 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 9 | 1-8-0 | 11.1% | 23.1% | 19.0% | -14.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 9 | 2-4-3 | 38.9% | 42.3% | 46.3% | -1.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Slimes | 5.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.3% | -10.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 52.7% | +1.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.5% | +14.9 |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.1 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 29.1% | -33.4 |
| Razorgale | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.2% | +13.7 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Water Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Water Polkhawk | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.5% | +24.8 |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 3 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |