Water FractalTier 2
at Ascent Melbourne
decks
3
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
33
18-9-6
overall winrate
63.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.2%
avg ELO +2.2 per match
expected value
54.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1507
· median 1570
· range 1369–1584
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1204
Q3 1407
1702
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 71.0% | +15.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 33.1% | -12.6 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 10 | 4-3-3 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 54.6% | +2.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Slimes | 5.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Polkhawk | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
