Water AlliesTier 1
at Ascent Melbourne
decks
13
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
110
63-34-13
overall winrate
63.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.6%
avg ELO +3.5 per match
expected value
58.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1408
· median 1408
· range 1198–1689
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1204
Q3 1407
1702
54% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
8% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.4% | 13 | 6-4-3 | 57.7% | 55.9% | 57.0% | +2.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.8% | 12 | 7-4-1 | 62.5% | 59.4% | 55.8% | +2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 33.4% | -8.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 17 | 6-8-3 | 44.1% | 45.2% | 55.2% | +2.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 6 | 6-0-0 | 100.0% | 80.0% | 73.0% | +12.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 9 | 8-1-0 | 88.9% | 76.9% | 81.0% | +14.3 |
| Slimes | 5.5% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 54.8% | +2.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 66.3% | +10.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.0% | -7.6 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.2% | -2.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.6% | +3.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.5% | -26.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.6% | +10.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.1% | -6.6 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Water Diana | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.0% | +17.3 |
| Water Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Polkhawk | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.1% | +7.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Snow Fairy, Mystic Purifier, Frozen Dismissal. Losers more often ran: Lunete, Frostbinder Priest, Song of Frost, Inspiring Call.
Snow Fairy
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 3.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Mystic Purifier
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Frozen Dismissal
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Song of Nurturing
Winning decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Frostsworn Paladin
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 3.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Nia, Mistveiled Scout
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 3.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Lunete, Frostbinder Priest
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Song of Frost
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Inspiring Call
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Shroud in Mist
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Smoke Bombs
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Zander, Corhazi's Chosen
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Show all 52 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -0.71 | 1 | 6 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.57 | 0 | 4 | 3 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.57 | 4 | 0 | 3 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.57 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.57 | 0 | 4 | 2 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Shroud in Mist | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Drifting Rogue | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tristan, Hired Blade | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Shadowdancer | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Fracturize | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Freezing Hail | -0.14 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Halocline Scout | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Shadow's Claw | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extraction Incision | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Automated Gardener | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |