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Fire EruptingTier 1
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 25.0% | 18 | 12-5-1 | 69.4% | 65.9% | 64.3% | +5.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.2% | 11 | 2-8-1 | 22.7% | 30.0% | 31.5% | -8.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Water Allies | 7.4% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 35.2% | -9.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 37.6% | -7.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.1% | +2.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.9% | +6.4 |
| Wind Neos | 4.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +13.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Resolute Stand, Arisanna, Lucent Arbiter, Flame Sweep. Losers more often ran: Dusklight Communion, Fire Resonance Bauble, Azure Protective Trinket.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Lucent Arbiter | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| The Elysian Astrolabe | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Rai, Spellcrafter | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Fireball | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Channeling Stone | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Arisanna, Astral Zenith | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fiery Duelist | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Warcry | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Subjugating Lash | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Charge | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cemetery Sentry | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Discordia, Harp of Malice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |