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Fire Umbra RangerTier 2
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 25.0% | 14 | 3-10-1 | 25.0% | 30.6% | 32.6% | -7.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 46.8% | -2.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 9.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Water Allies | 7.4% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 36.2% | -8.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.6% | +7.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 4.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.1% | -7.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Zander | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Fire Umbra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 41 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Tear | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Duelist | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| False Step | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Penetrator Round | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Automaton Bomber | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Airship Engineer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Creeping Torment | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lone Gunslinger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Force Load | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Soldier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |