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Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1

at Philippine Regionals Hosted by Gamersshop and Powered by Heralds Peak

decks
7 (6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
40 24-14-2
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.4% avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
56.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1367 · median 1400 · range 1113–1685 (7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1054 Q1 1169 Q3 1355 1685
57% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 29% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Allies 25.0% 12 7-4-1 62.5% 59.4% 55.9% +2.5
Fire Crux Mage 10.2% 7 4-2-1 64.3% 59.1% 53.8% +1.9
Fire Erupting 9.3% 5 4-1-0 80.0% 66.7% 62.4% +7.1
Fire Umbra Ranger 9.3% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 39.4% -7.9
Water Allies 7.4% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 57.3% +4.7
Fire Aggro 5.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.3% +10.1
Water Astra Cleric 5.6% 0
Wind Neos 4.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.6% -15.0
Fire Arcane 2.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.9% +7.8
Wind Crux Lorraine 2.8% 0
Fire Neos 1.9% 0
Water Crux Mage 1.9% 0
Fire Crux Lorraine 0.9% 0
Fire Neos Tonoris 0.9% 0
Fire Umbra Diana 0.9% 0
Fire Zander 0.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.1% -12.7
Water Crux Lorraine 0.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.2% -1.7
Water Luxem Assassin 0.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.1% +13.0
Wind Silvie 0.9% 0
Wind Tera Silvie 0.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.4% +11.8
Wind Umbra Ranger 0.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 35.1% -23.9
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Distilled Atrophy -1.00 0 2 0
Water Resonance Bauble -0.50 0 1 1
Uncover the Plot -0.50 0 1 1
Fire Resonance Bauble -0.50 0 1 1
Excalibur, Cleansing Light -0.50 0 1 1
Serum of Wisdom +0.50 1 0 1
Orb of Glitter -0.50 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.50 1 0 0
Orb of Choking Fumes +0.50 1 0 1
Wind Resonance Bauble -0.50 0 1 1
Spirit of Serene Water +0.50 1 0 0
Planted Explosive +0.50 1 0 0
Shroud in Mist +0.50 1 0 0
Fracturize +0.50 1 0 0
Uther, Illustrious King +0.50 1 0 0
Vanish from Sight +0.00 1 1 0
Gawain, Chivalrous Thief +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/2044/archetypes/Fire Luxem Assassin