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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 25.0% | 12 | 7-4-1 | 62.5% | 59.4% | 55.9% | +2.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.2% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 53.8% | +1.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 9.3% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 62.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.4% | -7.9 |
| Water Allies | 7.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.3% | +4.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.1% | -23.9 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distilled Atrophy | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Orb of Glitter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shroud in Mist | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uther, Illustrious King | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |