← Philippine Regionals Hosted by Gamersshop and Powered by Heralds Peak
Water Crux MageTier 3
at Philippine Regionals Hosted by Gamersshop and Powered by Heralds Peak
decks
2
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.8%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
46.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1305
· median 1305
· range 1183–1427
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1054
Q1 1169
Q3 1355
1685
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 25.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -13.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +15.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 9.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
