← 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS
Fire AggroTier 2
at 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.9% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 59.8% | +4.5 |
| Water Genbu | 11.7% | 14 | 6-8-0 | 42.9% | 44.4% | 42.0% | -3.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.6% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 37.3% | -6.1 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +3.8 |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.7% | -3.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 74.1% | +15.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.5% | -0.4 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.8% | -1.7 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.0% | -3.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.7% | -5.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Luxem Tamer | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.8% | -1.7 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -3.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Water Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 54 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 54 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blissful Calling | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianye, Dawn's Keep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fortuitous Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamebolt Arbalist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pierce the Heavens | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kind Beastcaller | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Da Qiao, Cinderbinder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Direwolf Alpha | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tinderflare Pivot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Azurite Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dodge Roll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Opening Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |