← 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS

Wind RazorgaleTier 2

at 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS

decks
4 (2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28 9-15-4
overall winrate
39.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.0% avg ELO -2.9 per match
expected value
47.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1365 · median 1350 · range 1284–1474 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
807 Q1 1211 Q3 1394 1730
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 13.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.1% +11.4
Water Genbu 11.7% 4 1-1-2 50.0% 50.0% 48.1% -1.2
Wind Shadowstrike 10.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.0% -12.9
Fire Exia 5.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.3% -6.0
Wind Allies 5.6% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 43.3% -5.0
Fire Aggro 5.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.7% -19.7
Fire Crux Mage 5.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.1% +1.1
Fire Suzaku 4.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.2% -17.4
Wind Astra Cleric 3.9% 0
Wind Byakko 3.3% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 52.3% +3.7
Fire Seiryuu 2.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.4% +16.6
Water Ravishing Mill 2.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.2% -10.8
Wind Seiryuu 2.8% 0
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 2.2% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.2% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 34.8% -14.6
Water Penguin Mill 2.2% 0
Fire Arcane 1.7% 0
Fire Luxem Tamer 1.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.4% +16.6
Water Neos 1.7% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.1% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.4% +2.2
Fire Slimes 1.1% 0
Slimes 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.9% +7.8
Water Allies 1.1% 0
Water Tera Cleric 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.0% +16.0
Water Tera Mage 1.1% 0
Wind Beast 1.1% 0
Fire Byakko 0.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.6% -11.9
Fire Crux Lorraine 0.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 32.7% -16.6
Fire Crux Merlin 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.6% +17.0
Fire Triskit 0.6% 0
Water Astra Cleric 0.6% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 0.6% 0
Water Crux Mage 0.6% 0
Water Dawn of Ashes 0.6% 0
Water Diana 0.6% 0
Water Kongming 0.6% 0
Water Tera Diao Chan 0.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.7% -14.8
Water Tera Silvie 0.6% 0
Water Wind Vanitas 0.6% 0
Wind Lorraine 0.6% 0
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Wind Razorgale decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Reclaim -1.00 0 1 0
Aesan Protector +1.00 1 0 0
Tithe Proclamation -1.00 0 1 0
Water Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Fire Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Staggering Strike +1.00 1 0 0
Windrider Mage -1.00 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Cyclical Breeze +1.00 1 0 0
Zhou Yu, Enlightened Sage -1.00 0 1 0
Ensnaring Fumes +1.00 1 0 0
Second Wind +1.00 1 0 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Eternal Magistrate +1.00 1 0 0
Turbo Charge -1.00 0 1 0
Primeval Ritual +1.00 1 0 0
Verdigris Decree -1.00 0 1 0
Ardent Cloudstriker +1.00 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny +1.00 1 0 0
Swift Recruit +1.00 1 0 0
Break Apart -1.00 0 1 0
Arrow Trap +1.00 1 0 0
Tariff Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Brackish Lutist +1.00 1 0 0
Baby Green Slime -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror +1.00 1 0 0
Zephyr -1.00 0 1 0
Scatter Essence +1.00 1 0 0
Three Visits +1.00 1 0 0
Zephyr Assistant -1.00 0 1 0
Art of War -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/21318/archetypes/Wind Razorgale