← 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS
Fire SuzakuTier 1
at 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.9% | 14 | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.3% | +2.2 |
| Water Genbu | 11.7% | 11 | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +1.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.6% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +1.3 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.9% | -12.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.4% | +11.9 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 70.1% | +15.0 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +2.9 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.7% | +6.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.9% | -1.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Tamer | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Water Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.9 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Revelations | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianye, Dawn's Keep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Direwolf Alpha | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Band of Burning Verdict | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fated Keepsake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |