← 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS
Water Penguin MillTier 2
at 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS
decks
4
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
34
16-16-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.5%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
46.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1348
· median 1338
· range 1298–1419
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1211
Q3 1394
1730
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.9% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 32.1% | -11.5 |
| Water Genbu | 11.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.6% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -1.6 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.2% | +13.7 |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.3% | +5.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.1% | +1.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.7% | -7.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Luxem Tamer | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Water Neos | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.4 |
| Water Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Water Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
