← 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS
Water FractalTier 1
at 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS
decks
25
(13.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
173
104-52-17
overall winrate
65.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.1%
avg ELO +3.0 per match
expected value
58.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1344
· median 1328
· range 1117–1730
(25 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1211
Q3 1394
1730
28% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
24% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 11.7% | 17 | 12-4-1 | 73.5% | 69.0% | 63.8% | +5.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.6% | 28 | 11-14-3 | 44.6% | 45.3% | 42.1% | -2.9 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 8 | 5-1-2 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 61.8% | +5.6 |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 11 | 7-2-2 | 72.7% | 66.7% | 54.7% | +2.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 40.2% | -4.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +2.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 14 | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -2.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 7 | 6-0-1 | 92.9% | 77.3% | 72.0% | +11.1 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.3% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +2.0 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.8% | +9.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 56.6% | +4.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 42.3% | -4.4 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.4% | +7.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 57.7% | +4.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.2% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 67.9% | +11.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.0% | +12.7 |
| Fire Luxem Tamer | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Neos | 1.7% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 66.2% | +9.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 55.5% | +3.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.4% | +9.0 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Water Allies | 1.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.8% | -8.9 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.1% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 76.6% | +17.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.2% | +9.8 |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.0% | -3.8 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
| Fire Triskit | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.9% | +8.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.1% | +6.8 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.3% | +3.2 |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.4% | +1.0 |
Decklists · 25 from this event
The 25 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches (3 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Frostbind, Unstable Fractal, Burst Asunder. Losers more often ran: Frozen Dismissal, Lost in Thought, Cerulean Decree.
Frostbind
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Unstable Fractal
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Burst Asunder
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 3.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Fractal of Refreshment
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Portentous Tanggu
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Awakened Deacon
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Frozen Dismissal
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Banned
Lost in Thought
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Cerulean Decree
Losing decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 88 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 68 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.50 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.50 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | +0.50 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| Lost in Thought | -0.50 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.38 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 3 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.25 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Kaleidoscope Barrette | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Fracturize | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.12 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Art of War | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mana Resonance | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Idyll Corsage | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Fel Eidolon | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronal of Rejuvenation | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hydroguard Retainer | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Yudi, Gossamer Jade | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ebbing Tide | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bagua of Vital Demise | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Ascetic Vice | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tera Sight | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Leeching Bolt | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Taiji of Crystal Strategems | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Awakening | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostnip Pirouette | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hairpin of Transience | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Halt | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eventide Lure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |