← 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS

Wind AlliesTier 1

at 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS

decks
10 (5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
72 38-30-4
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.5% avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
51.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1292 · median 1280 · range 1072–1536 (10 pilots with an ELO rating)
807 Q1 1211 Q3 1394 1730
10% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 10% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 13.9% 11 2-7-2 27.3% 33.3% 45.3% -2.1
Water Genbu 11.7% 6 4-2-0 66.7% 60.0% 57.0% +3.8
Wind Shadowstrike 10.6% 12 5-5-2 50.0% 50.0% 50.7% +0.3
Fire Exia 5.6% 5 1-4-0 20.0% 33.3% 39.4% -6.1
Fire Aggro 5.0% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 54.3% +3.2
Fire Crux Mage 5.0% 5 4-1-0 80.0% 66.7% 61.5% +6.6
Fire Suzaku 4.4% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 66.1% +12.0
Wind Astra Cleric 3.9% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 35.3% -14.1
Wind Byakko 3.3% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 66.6% +15.9
Fire Seiryuu 2.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.2% -10.9
Water Ravishing Mill 2.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.1% +14.5
Wind Seiryuu 2.8% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 66.2% +15.6
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 2.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 62.8% +12.3
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.2% 0
Water Penguin Mill 2.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.7% +0.7
Wind Razorgale 2.2% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 56.7% +5.0
Fire Arcane 1.7% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 45.3% -3.5
Fire Luxem Tamer 1.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.2% -10.9
Water Neos 1.7% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.1% 0
Fire Slimes 1.1% 0
Slimes 1.1% 0
Water Allies 1.1% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 42.5% -7.2
Water Tera Cleric 1.1% 0
Water Tera Mage 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.6% +7.4
Wind Beast 1.1% 0
Fire Byakko 0.6% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 66.5% +15.8
Fire Crux Lorraine 0.6% 0
Fire Crux Merlin 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.8% +18.8
Fire Triskit 0.6% 0
Water Astra Cleric 0.6% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 0.6% 0
Water Crux Mage 0.6% 0
Water Dawn of Ashes 0.6% 0
Water Diana 0.6% 0
Water Kongming 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.3% +11.7
Water Tera Diao Chan 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.4% +18.2
Water Tera Silvie 0.6% 0
Water Wind Vanitas 0.6% 0
Wind Lorraine 0.6% 0
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 55 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 55 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Dilu, Auspicious Charger -1.00 0 1 0
Reclaim +1.00 1 0 0
Scepter of Fascination +1.00 1 0 0
Aesan Protector +1.00 1 0 0
Perse, Relentless Raptor -1.00 0 1 0
Prototype Pistol +1.00 1 0 0
Shimmercloak Assassin +1.00 1 0 0
Unbroken Mustang -1.00 0 1 0
Water Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Fire Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Lurking Assailant +1.00 1 0 0
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa -1.00 0 1 0
Veiling Breeze +1.00 1 0 0
Liu Bei, Oathkeeper -1.00 0 1 0
Charged Mannequin +1.00 1 0 0
Diao Chan, Enchantress +1.00 1 0 0
Stifling Trap +1.00 1 0 0
Windspire Crest -1.00 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Ceremonial Stormblade -1.00 0 1 0
Tempest Downfall +1.00 1 0 0
Portentous Tanggu +1.00 1 0 0
Zhang Fei, Spirited Steel -1.00 0 1 0
Sword of Seeking -1.00 0 1 0
Mortal Ambition -1.00 0 1 0
Smoke Bombs +1.00 1 0 0
Windmill Engineer -1.00 0 1 0
Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar -1.00 0 1 0
Maiden of Reverent Gale +1.00 1 0 0
Inspiring Call -1.00 0 1 0
Parcenet, Royal Maid -1.00 0 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Vanishing Shot +1.00 1 0 0
Favorable Winds -1.00 0 1 0
Ornamental Greatsword -1.00 0 1 0
Verdigris Decree -1.00 0 1 0
Lorraine, Blademaster -1.00 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Break Apart -1.00 0 1 0
Tariff Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Brackish Lutist +1.00 1 0 0
Oath of the Sakura -1.00 0 1 0
Brisk Windtrotter +1.00 1 0 0
Zephyr +1.00 1 0 0
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror -1.00 0 1 0
Dream Fairy -1.00 0 1 0
Scatter Essence +1.00 1 0 0
Ma Chao, Lupine Huntress -1.00 0 1 0
Innervate Agility +1.00 1 0 0
Annul Spell +1.00 1 0 0
Windpiercer +1.00 1 0 0
Skirting Step -1.00 0 1 0
Beastbond Ears +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/21318/archetypes/Wind Allies