← 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS
Water Tera MageTier 3
at 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS
decks
2
(1.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
3-7-6
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.8%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
43.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1133
· median 1133
· range 996–1271
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1211
Q3 1394
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Water Genbu | 11.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.0% | +5.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.1 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -5.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Tamer | 1.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Neos | 1.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
