← 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS
Fire ExiaTier 2
at 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.9% | 8 | 1-5-2 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 38.2% | -5.6 |
| Water Genbu | 11.7% | 14 | 3-10-1 | 25.0% | 30.6% | 31.2% | -7.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.6% | 8 | 1-6-1 | 18.8% | 29.2% | 33.6% | -7.9 |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 60.6% | +6.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -3.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 62.8% | +7.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.8% | -6.1 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.2% | +1.6 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.9% | +12.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.8% | -13.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Tamer | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Water Neos | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Water Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Water Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Savage Swing, Annul Spell, Stalwart Shieldmate. Losers more often ran: Bloodshroud Temper, Annihilation.
Show all 56 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 50 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloodshroud Temper | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Savage Swing | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annihilation | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Proof of Life | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Savage Sunder | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Meltdown | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Desperate Cavalier | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Relentless Outburst | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Disenchant | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chibi, Battle of Red Cliffs | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingress of Sanguine Ire | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhao Yun, Dragonsblood | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regenerate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sun Jian, Wolvesbane | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Potion of Healing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |