← HVN Regional Santa Clara by Final Cut TCG
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HVN Regional Santa Clara by Final Cut TCG.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Luxem Zander | 2 | 2.2% | 14 | 75.0% | 51.0% | 57.1% | 51.0% | 1665 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Allies | 6 | 6.7% | 44 | 60.2% | 55.6% | 56.6% | 54.8% | 1346 | — |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 8 | 8.9% | 55 | 63.6% | 59.7% | 55.5% | 53.8% | 1300 | — |
| 4 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 1.1% | 8 | 56.2% | 46.5% | 55.0% | 52.9% | 1223 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Exia | 2 | 2.2% | 16 | 62.5% | 69.4% | 54.2% | 57.2% | 1237 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 4 | 4.4% | 24 | 60.4% | 57.6% | 54.0% | 53.4% | 1292 | — |
| 7 | Wind Astra Cleric | 5 | 5.6% | 31 | 59.7% | 51.6% | 53.4% | 51.0% | 1438 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Tera Kongming | 2 | 2.2% | 15 | 66.7% | 63.2% | 53.2% | 53.0% | 1533 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 71.4% | 45.6% | 51.4% | 45.8% | 1561 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 6 | 6.7% | 39 | 46.2% | 47.9% | 51.2% | 51.4% | 1329 | — |
| 11 | Water Fractal | 15 | 16.7% | 82 | 54.3% | 50.9% | 51.1% | 49.6% | 1306 | — |
| 12 | Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 4 | 4.4% | 26 | 42.3% | 41.3% | 49.3% | 49.4% | 1355 | — |
| 13 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 57.1% | 49.9% | 49.0% | 46.8% | 1333 | — |
| 14 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 3 | 3.3% | 16 | 43.8% | 38.2% | 48.8% | 45.6% | 1415 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.1% | 8 | 37.5% | 49.3% | 47.6% | 50.3% | 1336 | — |
| 16 | Fire Diana | 1 | 1.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 39.4% | 47.5% | 46.0% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 35.7% | 41.2% | 46.8% | 46.8% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Genbu | 6 | 6.7% | 38 | 46.1% | 53.2% | 46.5% | 49.9% | 1326 | — |
| 19 | Fire Suzaku | 6 | 6.7% | 31 | 33.9% | 43.4% | 44.5% | 47.9% | 1232 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Exia | 4 | 4.4% | 25 | 40.0% | 50.8% | 44.5% | 47.6% | 1112 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 4.4% | 25 | 34.0% | 44.6% | 44.1% | 47.5% | 1211 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 1.1% | 6 | 33.3% | 56.0% | 43.5% | 48.9% | 1070 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1 | 1.1% | 3 | 16.7% | 34.9% | 42.7% | 43.7% | 1144 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 6 | 6.7% | 36 | 31.9% | 37.5% | 40.2% | 42.3% | 1259 | — |
| 25 | Fire Kongming | 1 | 1.1% | 6 | 0.0% | 28.9% | 40.0% | 44.0% | 1069 | ↓ low |