Fire AggroTier 2
at National-SEA 2025
decks
29
(10.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
230
108-115-7
overall winrate
48.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.1%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1351
· median 1358
· range 1140–1610
(29 pilots with an ELO rating)
1028
Q1 1294
Q3 1463
1736
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
28% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.9% | 54 | 25-27-2 | 48.1% | 48.3% | 55.7% | +2.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 39 | 19-19-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +1.3 |
| Wind Allies | 13.6% | 41 | 18-23-0 | 43.9% | 44.4% | 47.7% | -0.8 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 19 | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +1.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 13 | 5-6-2 | 46.2% | 47.1% | 52.7% | +1.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.4% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 45.5% | -2.2 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 52.8% | +1.4 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.3% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 36.6% | -7.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 42.9% | -4.6 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.5% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 75.7% | +13.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.2% | -6.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 73.2% | +22.3 |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.8% | +20.9 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.3% | +15.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Water Byakko | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.2% | +15.6 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 29 from this event
The 29 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 13 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa, Focused Flames, Honorable Vanguard. Losers more often ran: Ignited Stab, Clumsy Apprentice, Captivating Cutthroat.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
9, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 0.
Focused Flames
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Honorable Vanguard
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Flame Sweep
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Sword of Seeking
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Creative Shock
Winning decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Ignited Stab
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Clumsy Apprentice
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Captivating Cutthroat
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Rococo, Explosive Maven
Losing decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Mark the Target
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Scavenging Raccoon
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Show all 95 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 75 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignited Stab | -0.46 | 0 | 6 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.46 | 3 | 9 | 1 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | -0.38 | 2 | 7 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.38 | 9 | 4 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.38 | 1 | 6 | 5 | |
| Mark the Target | -0.38 | 2 | 7 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.38 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -0.38 | 2 | 7 | 3 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.38 | 6 | 1 | 2 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.38 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.38 | 6 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -0.31 | 2 | 6 | 4 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.31 | 2 | 6 | 4 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.31 | 2 | 6 | 4 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.31 | 2 | 6 | 4 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.31 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.31 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.31 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +0.31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.31 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +0.31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.31 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.23 | 4 | 7 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.23 | 5 | 2 | 3 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.23 | 6 | 3 | 4 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.23 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.23 | 5 | 2 | 6 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 11 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.15 | 3 | 5 | 3 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 9 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 11 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.15 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Executioner's Spear | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Temper in Flames | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fang of Dragon's Breath | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 5 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 10 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 6 | |
| Oppressive Presence | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 10 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 10 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 4 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manic Zealot | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vicious Slice | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Brackish Lutist | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Set Ablaze | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 11 | |
| Kingdom Informant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 4 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Flashfire Horse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |